|
International
Tourism Up by 5.5% to 808 Million Arrivals
In
2005 international tourism sustained the
sharp upturn that began in 2004 in spite
of the various tragic events it had to contend.
According to preliminary results presented
by the United Nations specialized agency,
the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) the
number of international tourist arrivals
recorded worldwide grew by 5.5% and exceeded
800 million for the first time ever.
Although 2005 was certainly a tumultuous
year, international tourism has fared amazingly
well. Despite various terrorist attacks
and natural disasters, such as the aftermath
of the Indian Ocean tsunami and an extraordinarily
long and strong hurricane season, the recovery,
which started in 2004, continued firmly
through 2005. Even though the disruptions
experienced definitely left traces locally
in the short-term, they did not substantially
alter the global or regional traffic flows.
Based on detailed results for a large number
of destinations included in the January
issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer
the number of international tourist arrivals
in 2005 is estimated at 808 million, up
from 766 million in 2004. This corresponds
not only to an increase of 5.5%, but also
means a consolidation of the bumper growth
achieved in 2004 (+10%). Although growth
was more moderate, it still almost 1.5 percentage
points above the long-term average annual
growth rate of 4.1%.
UNWTO Secretary-General, Francesco Frangialli
commented “The tourism sector has gained
substantially in resilience over the past
years. In spite of the turbulent environment
we live in nowadays, destinations worldwide
added some 100 million international arrivals
between 2002 and 2005.”
Prospects
for 2006
For 2006 the current pattern of gradually
slowing growth is expected to continue.
In cooperation with the Fundación
Premio Arce of the Universidad Politécnica
de Madrid a short-term forecast has been
elaborated according to which international
tourist arrivals worldwide are expected
to grow between 4 - 5% in 2006.
Growth is projected to be around one percentage
point lower than in 2005 but still somewhat
above the forecast long-term annual growth
rate of 4.1%. This outlook is supported
by the continued good shape of the world
economy in most parts of the world and the
improved prospects for the euro-zone economies,
in particular its most important source
market Germany.
Three major uncertainties remain for 2006.
First, it is likely that terrorism will
continue to be present. However, experience
shows that its impact lately has been rather
limited and short-lived. Travelers overall
have assumed the risk and have been undeterred
by external threats. Secondly, rising energy
prices, inflation and interest rates might
finally change the economic scenario. This
has not been much of a problem until now,
as the price hike has mostly been an expression
of the strong economic growth and the corresponding
demand for energy. Should this situation
continue and affect economic growth in Asia,
the tourism industry could start feeling
the impact. Finally, the further spread
of avian flu could be a serious threat for
the tourism sector. Avian flu has been present
in the world for several years now and it
is currently limited to birds and isolated
cases of people living in very close contact
with infected animals. As yet no transmission
of the virus between humans has been detected
and it is hard to say whether, when and
where such a mutation will occur. For the
moment there is no reason to change travel
plans as long as recommendations issued
by national and local health and veterinary
authorities are respected.
“Panic is always a bad advisor”,
says Mr. Frangialli. “What we can do
is to monitor the situation closely and
prepare for it, should it happen. In spite
of the current uncertainties I am confident
that world tourism and all its stakeholders
will weather the storm if it
does come in the best way possible.”(BTN/UNWTO)
|
